Kenya Elections Prediction (A pro-NASA analysis)

The final lap for the hunt for the votes is here with us as the two biggest camps engage in the battle for numbers. The grounds looks prime but how are the numbers? Who is likely to win this fight? Who do the gods favour?
A little over view:

NASA JUB

The perceived Strongholds

Jubilee Stronghold (15 Counties)

  1. Nyandarua (97% of 336,322) – 326,232 votes
  2. Nyeri (96% of 460,806) – 442,374
  3. Kirinyaga (95% of 351,162) – 333,604
  4. Murang’a (95% of 590,775) – 561,236
  5. Tharaka (92% of 216,522) – 199,200
  6. Mandera (92% of 168,478) – 155,000
  7. Kiambu (90% of 1,173,593) – 1,056,234
  8. E Marakwet (90% of 178, 975) – 161,078
  9. Kericho (90% of 379,815) – 341,834
  10. Embu (89% of 315,688) – 280,962
  11. Meru (85% of 712, 378) – 605,521
  12. Laikipia (85% of 239,497) – 203,572
  13. Baringo (80% of 227,918) – 182, 334
  14. Nandi (80% of 349,340) – 279,472
  15. Nakuru (80% of 948,688) – 758,950

Total 5, 887, 603

(with a 85% turnout Jubilee has a sure bet of 5,004,462 votes)


Jubilee Support Counties (2)

  1. West Pokot (73% of 178 989) – 130,662
  2. Uasin Gishu (74% of 451, 485) – 334,099

Total – 464,761
(with a 75% Turnout – 348.571)


In total Jubilee from stronghold and support Counties garner’s
5,353,033 votes


NASA Stronghold (13 counties)

  1. Homabay – (99% of 476, 150) – 471,389
  2. Siaya (98% of 447,745) – 438,790
  3. Kisumu – (97% of 548, 868) – 532,402
  4. Vihiga (96% of 267,481) – 256,782
  5. Busia (94% of 347, 911) – 327,036
  6. Kakamega (94% of 746, 877) – 702,877
  7. Makueni (90% of 421,180) – 379,062
  8. Migori (88% of 388,967) – 342,291
  9. Bungoma (85% of 559, 897) – 475,912
  10. Kilifi (82% of 510,484) – 418,597
  11. Taita Taveta (82% of 155,904) – 127,841
  12. Kitui (80% of 477,655) – 382,124
  13. Kwale (80% of 282,436) – 225,949

Total – 5,081,049

(with a 85% turnout Nasa has a sure bet of 4,318,892 votes)


NASA Support County (7)

  1. Machakos (70% of 627,168) – 439,018
  2. Bomet (70% of 325,606) – 227,924
  3. Mombasa (69% of 596,485) – 411,575
  4. Kisii (68% of 544, 753) – 370,432
  5. Turkana (67% of (188,617) – 126,373
  6. Nyamira (66% of 279,685 – 184,592
  7. Tana River (61% of 118,189) – 72,095

Total – 1,835,009.29
(75% voter turnout – 1,376,257 votes)


In total NASA from stronghold and support county can garner
5,695,149 votes


Battle Grounds (8 counties)

Nairobi – 2,304, 386 –  Jub 49% – 1,129,149,

Nasa 50% – 1,152,193 votes

Kajiado – 409,266 –  Jub 52% – 212,818

Nasa 44% – 180,077

Narok – 347,427 votes –  Jub 48% – 166,765

Nasa 50%-173,713

Trans Nzoia – 339,823 votes –  Jub 40% – 135,929

Nasa 58% 197,097

Samburu – 79, 477 votes –  Jub 41% – 32,586

Nasa 58% – 46,097

Lamu – 70,224 votes  – Jub 42% – 29,494

 Nasa 52% – 36,516

Wajir – 155,916 votes – Jubilee 39% – 60,807

Nasa 51% – 79,517

Garissa – 132, 486 votes – Jubilee 45%- 59,619

Nasa 49% – 64,918


Total – Jubilee – 1,827,167
Nasa – 1,930,128

(with a 80% turnout) – Jubilee – 1,461,734
                                          NASA – 1,544,102


In total each camp now gets

Jubilee – 6,814,766
Nasa – 7,239,251

 


No, camp is yet to get the 50%+1 vote of 19,611,423 =(with 85% voter turnout which translates to 8,334,855+1= 8,334,856)

Jubilee is in short of – 1,520,089 votes
NASA is in short of – 1,095,604 votes


vs
this is where the real game begins
How many votes does each camp get from the rival basket?


 

Jubilee Votes in NASA stronghold & Support Counties

  1. Homabay – (0.25% of 476,150) – 1190
  2. Siaya – (0.3% of 447,745) – 1343
  3. Kisumu ( 1.33% of 548,868) – 7,300
  4. Vihiga (1.53% of 267,481) – 4,092
  5. Busia – (3.71% of 347, 911) – 12,907
  6. Kakamega – (2.63% of 746,877) – 19,643
  7. Makueni – (6% of 421,180) – 25,270
  8. Migori – (10% of 388,967) – 38,897
  9. Bungoma – (12% of 559,897) – 67,188
  10. Kilifi – (11% of 510,484) – 56,153
  11. Taita Taveta – (15% of 155,904) – 23,386
  12. Kitui – (18% of 477,655) – 85,978
  13. Kwale – (14% of 282,436) – 39,541
  14. Machakos – (28% of 627168) – 175,607
  15. Bomet – (28% of 325,606)- 91,170
  16. Mombasa – (24% of 596,485) – 130,740
  17. Kisii – (27% of 544,753)- 147,083
  18. Turkana – (30% of 188,617) – 56,585
  19. Nyamira – (29% of 279,685)- 81,109
  20. Tana River – (35% of 118,189) – 41,366

Total – 1,106,548
overall votes – 7,921,314 


 

NASA votes in Jubilee Stronghold and Support counties

  1. Nyandarua – (1.5% of 336,322) – 5,045
  2. Nyeri – (2% of 460,806) – 9,216
  3. Kirinyaga – (2% of 351,162) – 7,023
  4. Murang’a – (3% of 590,775) – 17,723
  5. Tharaka – (5% of 216,522) – 10,826
  6. Mandera – (4% of 168,478) – 6,739
  7. Kiambu – (8% of 1,178, 593) – 94,287
  8. E. Marakwet – (5% of (178 975) – 8,949
  9. Kericho – (7% of 379,815) – 26,587
  10. Embu (8% of 315,688) – 25,255
  11. Meru – (8% of 712,378) – 56,990
  12. Laikipia – (13% of 239, 497) – 31,135
  13. Baringo – (10% of 227, 918) – 22,792
  14. Nandi – (16% of 349,340) – 55,894
  15. Nakuru – (18% of 948,688) – 170,764
  16. W. Pokot – (24% of 178,989) – 42,957
  17. Uasin Gishu – (24% of 451,485) – 108,356

Total – 700,538

Overall Nasa Votes – 7,939, 789 


Total Tally

Jubilee – 7,921,314 

Nasa – 7,939, 789 

Nasa will win with over 18,475 votes

but will not reach the threshold of 50%+1 if the voter turnout is 85%  translating into 8,334,856 votes

No party to be declared the winner and we will have a re-election


Note: The Analysis are with the assumption that

  1. Isaack Ruto will deliver 70% of the Bomet votes to Nasa (an increase of 65.01% from the previous total of 4.09% that went to amani and cord combined) whereas Alfred Mutua will only deliver 28% of the votes in Machakos to Jubilee (an increase of 19% from the previous 9% that jubilee got)
  2. All other defectors to Jubilee add no value including Ababu,
  3. Uhuru will perform dismally bad in western as he did in last elections whereas Odinga will perform remarkably well in Uhuru strongholds as he did in last elections
  4. all the votes Mudavadi had adds up to Cord last election votes to make up NASA votes whereas Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua votes do not translate into Jubilee votes
  5. The battle grounds last elections are still battleground despite the in laws Jubilee has made in most of these regions
  6. Nasa will gain some ground in the Rift to the disadvantage of Jubilee especially in Bomet
  7. The turnout in Jubilee stronghold will be 85% ( this is slightly lower than last elections where most of the Counties had over 87% Turn out) whereas The turn out in NASA stronghold will be also 85% (higher than the last elections turnout)
  8. Perception that the old and the pastoralists being aligned to Jubilee are just hearsay

 

Note: This was a pro-NASA analysis. NASA was significantly given an upper-hand

However this puts NASA in big risk:

  • NASA has 7 support Counties to safeguard compared to Jubilee only 2
  • NASA is placed to win 7 out of 8 battle ground where Jubilee is placed to win only 1 another risk factor on NASA side
  • NASA has CCM as the main defect from Jubilee and support from Narc while Jubilee has Chapchap & Labour Party as the main defect from NASA parties in addition to support from KANU, PNU, Narc Kenya
  • NASA has not made as many in laws as Jubilee in their rival camp’s counties & battle ground counties. NASA has made inlaws in Bomet while Jubilee has made inlaws in Bungoma, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Machakos, Tana River and Marsabit among other regions.

With this in mind 18,475 votes is a narrow win and the NASA 7,939, 789 votes  is more of their upper limit while Jubilee 7,921,314 votes is more of their lower limit

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